WHERE HAVE ALL THE TEACHERS GONE?

In November 2007, voters approved $516 million in school bonds on the expectation that enrollments were on the rise and that existing schools needed repairs.  The chart above shows that the enrollment projections fell short.  Unexpectedly, 2007 was the last year the teacher count exceeded 9800.  In one of the worst coincidences, November 2007 was the beginning of the collapse of subprime home and auto loans, which led to the Great Recession.  By 2024, the teacher count was 8422, 1500 fewer teachers.  Despite the county's population increasing by 300,000(34%) in 2022, CMS' enrollment only increased by 14,000(11%).  The culprits were single adults who had been forming families as early as in their twenties, set a new average age of 30 or later.  Family formation happened later, with fewer children.  CMS spent two decades expecting more students who never arrived.

 When the Great Recession hit in 2009, district and state operational budgets ​took the hit.  Schools were closed.  Teachers had their first reductions-in-force.  By 2024-25 the number of teachers employed was lower than in 2011.  While the Great Recession and Covid-19 might appear to be to blame, it is more likely declining birth rates.  Economist Patrick Boyle has a YouTube explanation of this in the at the bottom panel.